How a Solar Superstorm Could Wipe Out the Internet for Months and What We Can Do to Prevent It
A solar superstorm is a massive eruption of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun that can disrupt or damage the global internet infrastructure, particularly the undersea cables that underpin the internet. Learn more about the possible effects of a solar superstorm on the internet and how we can prepare for it.
Solar superstorm could “wipe out the internet” for months, scientist says
A solar superstorm is a massive eruption of plasma and magnetic fields from the sun that can cause geomagnetic disturbances on Earth. Such events are rare, but they have the potential to disrupt or damage the global internet infrastructure, especially the undersea cables that connect continents.
What is a solar superstorm?
The sun is constantly emitting streams of charged particles, known as the solar wind, that interact with the Earth's magnetic field. Sometimes, the sun also produces more powerful bursts of plasma and magnetic fields, called coronal mass ejections (CMEs), that can travel at speeds of up to several million miles per hour.
When a CME hits the Earth, it can cause a geomagnetic storm, which is a disturbance in the Earth's magnetic field. Depending on the intensity and direction of the CME, a geomagnetic storm can have various effects, such as auroras, power outages, satellite malfunctions, and radio blackouts.
A solar superstorm is a very severe geomagnetic storm that can occur when a large and fast CME is directed towards the Earth. Such events are estimated to happen once every 100 years on average, but the exact frequency is uncertain. The most powerful solar superstorm in recorded history was the Carrington event of 1859, which caused widespread disruptions to telegraph systems and auroras as far as the equator.
How could a solar superstorm affect the internet?
The internet is a complex network of interconnected devices, servers, routers, and cables that enable the exchange of data and information across the world. While some parts of the internet are more resilient than others, a solar superstorm could pose a serious threat to the global internet infrastructure, particularly the undersea cables that underpin the internet.
Undersea cables are long and thin wires that carry optical signals across oceans and continents. They are responsible for about 95% of the international internet traffic, according to a recent study by Sangeetha Abdu Jyothi of the University of California, Irvine. These cables are vulnerable to geomagnetic disturbances caused by solar superstorms, because they can induce electric currents in the cables that can damage or destroy the electronic components that amplify and regenerate the signals.
The study found that a solar superstorm could cause large-scale internet outages covering the entire globe and lasting several months. The impact would vary depending on the location, length, and configuration of the cables, as well as the severity and duration of the geomagnetic storm. The study also identified some regions that are more at risk than others, such as Africa, South America, and parts of Asia, where there are fewer cable connections and less redundancy.
The study also pointed out that the current internet infrastructure is not prepared for a solar superstorm scenario, and that there is a lack of coordination and planning among the stakeholders, such as cable operators, internet service providers, governments, and regulators. The study recommended some possible mitigation strategies, such as increasing the cable diversity and redundancy, deploying backup satellite systems, and developing early warning and emergency response protocols.
What are the chances of a solar superstorm happening?
The probability of a solar superstorm hitting the Earth is difficult to estimate, because it depends on many factors, such as the solar cycle, the sunspot activity, the magnetic field orientation, and the detection and forecasting capabilities. However, some scientists have suggested that the likelihood of a Carrington-level event occurring in the next decade is around 1.6%, while others have argued that it could be as high as 12%.
The sun is currently in the 25th solar cycle, which began in December 2019 and is expected to peak in July 2025. The solar cycle is a periodic change in the sun's activity and appearance, which affects the frequency and intensity of solar flares and CMEs. The current cycle is predicted to be similar to the previous one, which was relatively mild compared to some earlier cycles.
However, even a mild solar cycle can produce powerful solar storms, as evidenced by the 2012 event, which was a near miss for the Earth. A CME that erupted from the sun on July 23, 2012, was comparable to the Carrington event in size and speed, but it missed the Earth by a week. If it had hit the Earth, it could have caused widespread power outages and internet disruptions, according to a NASA study.
Therefore, it is important to monitor the sun's activity and prepare for the possibility of a solar superstorm, as the consequences could be catastrophic for the modern society that relies heavily on the internet for communication, commerce, education, entertainment, and more.
Conclusion:
A solar superstorm is a rare but real threat to the global internet infrastructure, especially the undersea cables that carry most of the international data traffic. Such an event could cause widespread and long-lasting internet outages, affecting various aspects of modern society. To mitigate the risk, we need to improve the resilience and diversity of the internet infrastructure, as well as develop early warning and emergency response systems. We also need to monitor the sun's activity and be prepared for the possibility of a solar superstorm, as the consequences could be catastrophic.